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Japan has not yet succeeded in pro- trained personnel. She has sufficient ducing a counterpart of the remarkable officers and men to provide a full com

a NC flying boats of the United States plement for every vessel that would be navy; and, in fact, there is positive mobilized in case of war, and, in addievidence that her aviation services, tion, a reserve force numerous enough both naval and military, are in a back- to man every new warship and auxiliary ward state. The 1918 programme made that could be placed in commission. provision for 140 new naval airplanes, This means that the whole of the effecall of which were to be ready for use in tive strength of the Japanese navy five years' time. Since, in their present could be mobilized swiftly and secretly, stage of development, even the largest and dispatched to the war zone without airplanes have a relatively limited ra- a week's delay. dius of action, it is clear that they could The American navy, on the other not participate to any marked extent in hand, is hampered by the chronic shorta Pacific campaign unless supported age of personnel. Judging from recent by aircraft-carriers. This, however, is a experience, the first hint of war would type of vessel in which both navies are flood the recruiting bureaus and fill the sadly deficient. The United States will training camps to overflowing; but the shortly have two such ships, the Lang- fact remains that competent naval ofley and the Wright; but as their speed ficers and bluejackets cannot be imis not more than 15 knots, they would be provised. Two years is a very narrow too slow to accompany the battle-fleet, estimate of the time required to convert and might prove more of a hindrance a civilian into a useful rating on board than a help if attached to it. Japan is a modern man-of-war. What proporeven worse off, possessing as she does tion of the United States active fleet only one old and slow ship of limited could put to sea on the outbreak of war, carrying capacity; but the Hosho, a fully manned with trained officers and new aircraft-carrier of high speed, is men, is a secret known only to the Navy under construction and will join the Department; but external evidence fleet next year.

suggests that the figure would be considerably below the total paper strength

of the United States navy. IV

In the Pacific, as in other possible The personnel factor, it need hardly theatres of war, strategy is merely the be said, is of supreme importance in re- handmaid of policy. Previous to the lation to naval efficiency. Only the war with Spain the United States had test of war could determine which navy no commitments in the Pacific beyond has the most highly trained and efficient her own territorial waters, and was officers and men; but there is no reason consequently under no necessity to to suppose that any marked difference maintain a powerful naval force in that exists between American and Japanese ocean; for geography had imposed inseamen in respect of morale and pro- superable barriers between her Western fessional keenness. Both services have littoral and a would-be invader from an unbroken record of victorious war- the East. But with the acquisition fare, and both are imbued with the of the Philippines and other Pacific isglorious traditions that inspire men lands formerly held by Spain, the posiwith an iron 'will to win.' Japan is in a tion underwent a fundamental change. particularly advantageous position by The frontiers of America were thrust virtue of her large establishment of forward many thousands of miles, and

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the task of defending them by sea-power, map, they will be found to contain in a
hitherto so very simple, developed into nutshell the strategical problems which
a problem the complexity of which does the American naval command would be
not even yet seem to have been com- called upon to solve in case of war in
pletely visualized. If it were possible the Pacific.
to rule out these islands, the American Distance and base-power are the
people might feel supremely confident dominant factors in the situation. It is
as to their naval position. But no one nearly 7000 miles from the American
familiar with the American temper ever coast to the Philippines, and no fleet
supposes that the Philippines would be dare venture so far in war-time with-
tamely surrendered to the Japanese or out being assured of finding ample sup-
to any other invader. Their retention plies of fuel when it reaches its destin-
would therefore compel America to ation. A few years hence, provided
concentrate her naval effort in the West- that the plans of the Navy Department
ern Pacific, where she does not as yet are allowed to mature, a well-defended
possess a single first-class naval base, base will have been established at
and possibly to fight a decisive action Guam. It will then be feasible for the
at a distance of nearly 7000 miles from American battle-fleet to steam across
her home coast. She has one asset of the Pacific and undertake warlike oper-
great value in the Isthmian Canal, ations against an Asiatic power, using
which would enable her to transfer Guam as its advanced base. There is
naval force from the Atlantic to the some talk, also, of extending the dock-
Pacific with the minimum of delay; but yard at Cavite; but professional opinion
against this must be set a host of disad- is rather averse to this plan, holding,
vantageous conditions, which cannot as it does, that the Philippines, exposed
be fully realized unless the student has as they are to successful invasion by
before him a large-scale map of the the Japanese, should not be reckoned
Pacific.

among
the assets

upon which the AmerAssuming war with Japan to be a ican navy could rely in the event of possibility of the future, three proposi- war. The development of Guam, though tions may be advanced without much apparently now determined upon after fear of contradiction. (1) The Western many years of hesitation, will be a seaboard of the United States is abso- task of several years' duration, and lutely safe from serious hostile attack, until it is completed, the American fleet and a military invasion would be a sheer will be practically debarred from wagimpossibility. (2) In the event of war, ing warfare in the Western Pacific. the Philippines are practically certain Unless they are far less intelligent to be seized by Japan unless a powerful than we have any right to suppose, American fleet arrives in the Western Japanese naval officers must clearly Pacific within a fortnight after the dec- perceive the immense strategic imporlaration of war. (3) No such fleet could tance of Guam; and, this being so, it is be sent unless it was sure of finding a reasonable to assume that they would secure base, with a submarine-proof an- make strenuous attempts to seize the chorage, abundant stocks of fuel and island in the very first stage of a conother requisite supplies, and facilities flict with America. With Guam in their for carrying out repairs, including those hands, they would have the Philippines necessitated by heavy damage sus- at their mercy. Whether under these tained in action. If these propositions circumstances the American battleare examined with the aid of a good fleet would advance into the Western Pacific would depend far more on con- moment and repeat the triumph of siderations of policy than of strategy. Tsushima on a magnified scale. Such, From the latter point of view it would at least, is the sanguine expectation of be courting disaster to leave the near- those who would control the Japanese est friendly base (Hawaii) nearly 5000 forces in time of war. miles behind and venture into an area But it is usually in war-time that the teeming with enemy submarines, where unexpected happens, and the whole histhere would be no harbor of refuge for tory of the recent world-wide struggle a damaged ship, no means of replenish- constitutes a warning against taking ing depleted bunkers, and scarcely any too much for granted. The German possibility of striking an effective blow plans took cognizance of every foresee at the enemy. A cruise of this nature able circumstance, and by all the rules would be a more desperate adventure of logic they were assured of success; than the voyage of the Russian Baltic yet it was precisely because of circumFleet, and we may be sure that it would stances that were not and could not be not be countenanced by any responsi- foreseen that the plans were brought to ble American strategist.

shipwreck. On the surface of things, a The Japanese themselves have never war with Japan in the near future would disguised their confidence in the im- confront the American naval leaders pregnability of their position vis-à-vis with a problem so difficult as to be wellthe United States. A war with that nigh incapable of solution. There are, country, they predict, would begin with however, several alternatives to the her expulsion from the Philippines and more obvious line of American strategy the summary destruction of such Amer- indicated above; and the very fact that ican naval forces as were present in the Japan, while professing so much conWestern Pacific. Japan, having seized fidence in her present naval position, is the Philippines, would revert to the de feverishly building new fighting ships fensive and calmly await developments and coastal defenses, suggests that she If her opponent so far flouted the rudi- is not altogether easy in her mind as to ments of strategy as to dispatch a fleet the issue of a conflict with the United to the war zone, relying on a 5000-mile States. The risks and uncertainties of line of communications with Hawaii, war are potent factors conducing to the the Japanese would resort to a war of maintenance of peace, in the Pacific as attrition by means of submarines and elsewhere. With the terrible lessons of mine-layers working from numerous the world struggle still fresh in memory, bases in the South Sea Islands and off it is inconceivable that any nation the coast of Japan. Then, when at would go to war except in defense of its length the American fleet, harassed and most vital interests. There is happily weakened by incessant submarine at- no tendency in responsible quarters to tacks and with its stock of fuel reduced exaggerate the differences now existing to a low ebb, proposed to return home, between America and Japan, and certhe Japanese battle-fleet in full strength tainly no suggestion that they are grave would sally forth at the psychological enough to justify a resort to arms.

THE CONTRIBUTORS' CLUB

ON A HORSE-AND-CARRIAGE

in stepping over the wheels; and when

you have unknotted the reins from the The farmer's boy is bringing it over whip-handle, and arranged them in for you this morning. You know that it parallel lines along the horse's back, is coming because you can hear the and flapped them once and clucked a quick click-clack of the horse's hoofs as little, the horse starts forward, strainthey slow up on the hard cement road; ing to gain impetus up the grassy slope; the creak and grind of the wheels and the wheels grit on the gravel and against the sides as they turn in the then run smartly out on the macadam driveway; the softened thud of hoofs road behind the metallic click of the and squeak of springs as the carriage horse's shoes as he settles into a trot. rolls over the grass and comes to a stop There is a feeling of soul in the motion, below the terraces beside the well. To because a horse has breathing power improve his time, the lean horse droops which cannot be expressed in a chemihis head forward and crops, crops,

cal formula and a muffler cut-out. He crops at the short, burned grass, takes steps briskly along, trot-trot, trot-trot, a step or two, and, munching a deli- shaking his mane from time to time and cious, salivary quid, turns to look at indulging in those ecstatic little horseyou as you approach. When a cow does heaves and whiskings of tail that cut the this, you hesitate. Horses are very dif- coarse horsehairs across your face. ferent from cows.

There does not seem to be much I am sorry, indeed, for those who room for a simple horse-and-carriage on have not had, or have by chance for- the double-plated, reënforced editiongotten, all the sensations of using a de-luxe expanse of state highway. It is horse-and-carriage. You back the horse annoying to jolt off and on the high away a little, and turn the front wheel little margin-edge, in order to make out more, so that you can step up be room for the touring-cars and motortween the wheels; you raise your foot trucks charging to and fro. There is a and fit it neatly to the little corrugated country road ahead on the left, and you iron square; you step, and feel the aim toward it, steering carefully in, springs give toward you, and are a little ploughing through a sandy curve at a nervous for fear the horse will start slow walk, and on up over a rise to a while you are in mid-air. A second later, soft dirt road which is dark underfoot and you are safely established on the in shady spots and white with dust for burning leather seat. No procedure on long sunny spaces. Trot-trot, trot-trot, earth is attended by a more charac- trot-trot the delicious smells of the teristic sensation than that of settling countryside are all around you, delicate one's self in a carriage. The rough tex- trailing of wild grapevines, the tang ture of the upholstery exhales the leath- of meadows where daisies and Queen ery, stably, but somehow clean, smell of Anne's Lace run riot, intervals of hay sleek horses and hay and harness; the couchant and buckwheat rampant, with axles squeak a little in spite of the serried rows of corn-banners filing rank grease which you so carefully avoided on rank between stone-wall divisions. It is summer: breath of sweet air, Ah, you find it very delightful, or you simmering noises of insects, shrill lo

are not the person I take you for. And custs high in the foliage, heavy bees where are you going? Does it matter? wading from milkweed to clover, and a Perhaps to the yellow farmhouse yonvast range of motions surging through der, for a basket of peaches and a jar of the seeming stillness, the vibrations of

cream; perhaps to the white farmhouse hummingbirds, the shimmering of heat- under the hill, for the week's crisp waves over the grass-fields, and, above, laundry and the tiger-kitten with the the vast piling of the clouds. You sniff pink nose, which they have promised great healthy, dusty sniffs, and watch

you. the horse's little pointed ears twitch,

WIGS AND TEACHERS now forward, now back, in response to noises that you cannot hear, while his One day, a number of years ago, I, a shabby flanks rise and fall under the teacher, had the pleasure of becoming leather trappings.

honorary member of a college class. And why do I insist upon a carriage The next morning I received an adverbehind your horse? Does it spoil the tisement which has ever since kept my picture of my summer day to see your- curiosity awake. It was the announceself sitting primly upright in a wagon, ment that I might buy wigs at reduced with all the commonplaceness of its rates. Now, why, I pondered, was it inwagging shafts, its blistering varnish,

timated to me that a wig would be a its twinkling wheels, and its cheerful good investment? Was it a personal or rattle? Would you have preferred your- a general suggestion? Should I look self a sporting equestrian, with artful

more youthful in a wig, or was I excrooks to your fingers and elbows and pected to take part in theatricals? The scientific set to your shoulders and a matter was never settled to my satispressure to your knees, a tailored habit, faction until recently, when I read the a stock, a crop, and a series of paces, personal papers of my great-greattrots, and canters? If so, please step grandfather, who died in 1808. He was aside. I cannot paint you thus. This one who 'most traitorously corrupted horse has never heard of a riding the youth of the realm by erecting a academy, and as for being ridden, the

grammar-school.' For forty years he farmer's boy has tried racing him bare- was headmaster of this New England back to the pasture once or twice, and grammar-school, preparing scores of has rubbed his ribs with straddling off boys for college. Please note that he and on, and torn his mane with hanging was head-master. Among the papers to it. Is that what you call riding? He was a hair-dresser's bill which ran thus: has a very small opinion of it: he prefers people at a distance, behind a dash

1784, Aug. 17. — To shave & dress wigs 14 times @ 4d per time

£0–4–8; board if possible; and as for pulling a wagon behind him — why, it is always and so on, from 1784 to 1791, in which

easier to draw than to carry, as anyone year grandfather's ‘White Bush Wig'

was dressed 48 times £2 — 12 -0. And now are you content to stay Never before had I thought of wigs where you are, with my horse-and- in relation to teachers — as an adjunct carriage, to jog on and on through the to authority, as a source of dignity, as a countryside in your clouds of dusty sign-capital of power. In fact, as reglory, with your heavenly hosts of gards the schoolroom, only one form of swallows darting among the haycocks? headcovering (not the teacher's) has

will tell you.

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